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Using the Slate.com delegate calculator, along with the New York Times Democratic Delegate Count, I’ve come to the idea that Hilary needs, at the very least, 99% of the remaining, unpledged super delegates to win the Democratic nomination.

Here’s my logic and guesses for upcoming primaries:

Guam – Obama wins, 55-45, 2 delegates each
Indiana – HRC wins 53-47, giving her 38 delegates to BO’s 34
North Carolina – Obama wins 55-45, giving him 63 delegates to HRC’s 52
West Virginia – HRC wins 53-47, giving her 15 delegates to BO’s 13
Kentucky – HRC wins 53-47, giving HRC 27 delegates to 24
Oregon – BO wins 54-46, giving BO 28 delegates to 24
Puerto Rico – BO wins 54-46, giving BO 30 delegates to 25
Montana – HRC wins 55-45, giving HRC 9 delegates to 7
South Dakota – HRC wins 55-45, giving HRC 8 delegates to 7

At the end of all that, Obama has 1,699 pledged delegates to HRC’s 1,536. Throw in the AP’s count of super delegates and you have 1,939 for Obama to 1,802 for HRC. That count also leaves 226 non-committed super delegates to get to the 2,025 total needed for nomination. So BO needs 38% of the super delegates and HRC needs 99% of the remaining to win the nomination. In fact, in order for Hilary to get to the total Obama would have at this stage, she’d need to win every contest named above by 80-20 margins!

Things get a little murkier when you throw in Florida and Michigan, since so much of that is unknown at this point. But, if you split delegates 50/50, you get 2,096 for Obama and 1,959 for Clinton (including super delegates)... so Obama gets the nomination with no need for the extra super delegates.

Even if you go 60/40 split with FL and MI in HRC’s favor, Obama still wins the nomination 2,064 to 1,990.

Why is she still in the race? It’s virtually impossible for her to win!